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02/10/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Timberwolves will have Kevin Love back in the lineup tonight versus the Dallas Mavericks at Target Center after serving a two-game suspension for stomping on Houston's Luis Scola during the third quarter of Saturday's 100-91 win.
Love, who leads the Wolves in both scoring (25.0 ppg) and rebounding (13.7), missed Tuesday's 86-84 win over Sacramento and Wednesday's 85-80 loss at Memphis. The All-Star forward should provide a big lift for a Minnesota team that had its three-game winning streak cut short against the Grizzlies.
J.J. Barea ended with 17 points and six assists, while Michael Beasley and Derrick Williams each scored 13 points for the Timberwolves, who got 10 points and nine rebounds from Nikola Pekovic and shot just 39.2 percent.
"We didn't come out with energy," Barea said on the team's website. "That put us in a deep hole. With teams like this, you can't fall behind."
The Wolves have won two in a row at home and will also welcome the New York Knicks to town on Saturday. They are 7-8 in the Twin Cities in 2011-12.
Dallas, meanwhile, will wrap up a three-game road trip this evening and put the brakes on a three-game slide with Wednesday's 105-95 triumph at Denver thanks to Dirk Nowitzki's 25 points and nine rebounds.
Vince Carter had 17 points and both Shawn Marion and Rodrigue Beaubois registered 13 for the defending NBA champion Mavericks, who have won seven of their last 11 games and improved to 6-6 away from Big D.
"When you're dealing with the altitude and all that," said Dallas head coach Rick Carlisle, "we had to have a lot of guys in and out of the game, and a lot of guys contributing and we did and that's the reason we won."
After tonight's game in Minnesota, the Mavs will return to Dallas for a three- game homestand versus the Blazers, Clippers and Nuggets. Nowitzki is averaging 26.3 points per game in his last three contests for a Dallas team that is 7-1 when scoring 100-plus points. Nowitzki has 23,179 career points and needs 156 to pass Boston legend Robert Parish (23,334) for 20th on the NBA's all-time scoring list. He is averaging 22.0 ppg in 46 career meetings with Minnesota and was just named to his 11th straight All-Star game.
On the injury front for the Mavs, guards Jason Kidd (calf) and Jason Terry (hip) are questionable for tonight. Kidd has missed six straight games and Terry played less than 28 minutes at Denver, scoring a season-low five points.
Dallas has lost the first two meetings with the Timberwolves this season, but is still a gaudy 18-3 in the past 21 matchups between the teams. Minnesota halted a nine-game home losing streak in this series with a 99-82 triumph at the Target Center on New Year's Day.
The Wolves haven't posted a three-game winning streak in this series since ripping off seven wins over the Mavs from Dec. 23, 1995 - Feb. 27, 1997.
<< Red Wings shoot for 19th straight home win vs. Ducks
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Forgive the Red Wings if they are looking past the Ducks
and towards this weekend when they could have a chance at matching the longest
home winning streak in NHL history.
After all, wins over Anaheim at Joe Louis Arena ar
<< Nets and Pistons finish home-and-home set
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Second-year center Greg Monroe is starting to heat up for a
Detroit Pistons team riding a season-high three-game winning streak and is
aiming for his fourth straight double-double tonight versus the New Jersey
Nets in the bac
<< Cavs and Bucks clash at the 'Q'
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cleveland Cavaliers rookie Kyrie Irving probably won't play
again tonight after suffering a concussion earlier this week, but Ramon
Sessions will be there to pick up the slack.
Sessions filled in nicely for Irving the prev
<< Heat visit nation's capital to take on Wizards
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After getting their six-game road trip off to a poor start,
the Miami Heat will dust themselves off for tonight's showdown against the
lowly Washington Wizards at the Verizon Center.
The Heat had won three straight and 11
Giggs to play another year at United >>
Manchester, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Manchester United manager Sir Alex
Ferguson has revealed that midfielder Ryan Giggs will return to the club for
another season after signing a one-year contract extension.
The 38-year-old Giggs m
Blazers, Hornets tangle in the Big Easy >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Portland hopes a Western Conference-worst New Orleans team
proves to be a bit of a tonic after the Blazers dropped consecutive games in
Rip City.
A controversial goaltending call on All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge al
Avs aim to close homestand with win over 'Canes >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Colorado Avalanche recently put their longest skid of
the season behind them and will try to close out a four-game homestand with
another victory when they face the Carolina Hurricanes tonight at Pepsi
Center.
The Ava
New York signs midfielder Palsson >>
Harrison, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Red Bull New York signed Icelandic midfielder
Victor Palsson on Friday.
Palsson, 20, spent the last year at Scottish Premier League side Hibernian and
appeared in 34 games in all competitions. The defensive
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Two playoff teams from 2007 take center stage on the NFL Network Sunday night in a Week 2 NFL betting match-up when the (0-1) New England Patriots betting head south to Florida for a contest with the (1-0) Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
New England HC Bill Belichick couldn’t care less about the way his team plays in the preseason. With a chance to tie last week’s game with the Baltimore Ravens betting, He elected to go for the two-point conversion and outright victory. The conversion failed, and the Pats ended up falling to the Ravens by a 16-15 final count.
New England rolled off twelve unanswered points to give it a chance at securing the victory, but it never threatened to cover the 3.5-point spread. NFL bettors saw this one coming, as they bet the Ravens down from +6 to +3.5 as the week progressed. QB Tom Brady didn’t take part in the Patriots first preseason clash, but could see action this weekend.
His three replacements all put up embarrassing numbers. They went a combined 17 for 33, and threw three interceptions and no touchdowns. The New England defense was encouraging, as they held the Ravens to 2/12 third down conversions and surrendered just ten first downs. That ‘D’ should be bolstered with the addition of former Bucs and Denver Broncos betting safety John Lynch, who could make his Patriots debut on Sunday against his former mates.
HC Jon Gruden had to be impressed with the way his Bucs played on both sides of the ball in their dominating 17-6 victory over the Miami Dolphins in Week 1’s NFL pre-season betting action. Bucs bettors were quite happy with the effort, as they made a mockery of the fact that they were underdogs in the game.
The logjam at the quarterback position didn’t get any easier to separate for Gruden, as all four of his QBs had positive experiences in the first exhibition of 2008. The four combined to complete 28 of their 40 passes for 204 yards and a touchdown, and that was without starting QB Jeff Garcia in the lineup.
RB Michael Bennett had 19 carries and four receptions, totaling 90 yards and a touchdown. Expect to see more of Bennett, Kenneth Darby, and Earnest Graham, as they all compete for playing time with Warrick Dunn in the backfield this season. Defensively, the Bucs recorded four sacks and held the Fins offense in check all day.
First round draft pick Aqib Talib was impressive in the secondary, recording a tackle and two pass defenses in his debut. Don’t be surprised to see Talib in the starting lineup opposite Ronde Barber for the Bucs in ’08.
The betting trends suggest that NFL bettors should be backing the Bucs in this intra-conference exhibition.
These two teams hooked up last year in Tampa Bay, with the Bucs winning that game 13-10. The Buccaneers have only lost one preseason game at home dating back to the beginning of the ’05 preseason. The Patriots have had a mixed bag of results in their recent exhibitions. They have gone 2-2 ATS and SU each of the last three years.
New England currently sits as modest 1-point favorites in this preseason showdown with the ‘total’ now sitting at 34.5.
You can find these lines and all of the NFL betting lines , so be sure to login and get your wagers down before kickoff!
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines .
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